Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.09 – 127.95

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488 ±10.4

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 74.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 140.92Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 22.01Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±11

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -6.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 45.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 88.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 4039, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1360, 4039, 2634

Auto

39.4 17%

Teleop

148.2 63%

Endgame

46.0 20%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9782, 4069, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9782, 4069, 3161

Auto

19.8 16%

Teleop

79.0 62%

Endgame

27.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.1pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.1
Score range: 101–264
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488Season APEX403.2

39.4Auto19.8

148.2Teleop79

46Endgame27.7

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	29
teleop	75	165
endgame	35	36
foul	0	0
total	152	230

Result

Final score

152 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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