Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.74 – 91.94

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.2 ±12.2

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX -12.49Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 18.35Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 22.88Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.8 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 31.59Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 2Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 58.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6632, 4015, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6632, 4015, 6397

Auto

6.3 22%

Teleop

13.0 45%

Endgame

9.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 9659, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 9659, 9262

Auto

23.0 26%

Teleop

52.0 58%

Endgame

14.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.7pts

Blue projected score91.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.2
Score range: 2–119
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 152.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.2Season APEX239.8

6.3Auto23

13Teleop52

9.4Endgame14.2

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	24	24
endgame	15	7
foul	0	0
total	50	44

Result

Final score

50 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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