Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.96 – 269.27

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 657.4 ±8.8

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 2.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 83.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 164.95Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662.7 ±9.3

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 13.35Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 156.03Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 99.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 11270, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

251 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 11270, 1325

Auto

57.4 23%

Teleop

154.9 61%

Endgame

41.0 16%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 7520, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 7520, 7558

Auto

38.3 14%

Teleop

152.4 58%

Endgame

73.9 28%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251pts

Blue projected score269.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 224–296
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

657.4Season APEX662.7

57.4Auto38.3

154.9Teleop152.4

41Endgame73.9

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	18
teleop	131	127
endgame	47	42
foul	5	5
total	263	192

Result

Final score

263 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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