Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.84 – 115.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 20.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 131.5Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 33.27Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.3 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 11.99Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 33.09Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 70.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 2935, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 2935, 854

Auto

26.0 14%

Teleop

121.8 66%

Endgame

37.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 771, 10554, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 10554, 1360

Auto

35.7 30%

Teleop

37.8 32%

Endgame

45.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.8pts

Blue projected score115.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: 90–211
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.3Season APEX391.3

26Auto35.7

121.8Teleop37.8

37Endgame45.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	9
teleop	141	75
endgame	13	50
foul	30	20
total	220	154

Result

Final score

220 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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