Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.44 – 314.97

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±11.2

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 115.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 21.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 11.42Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.5 ±9.8

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 95.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 66.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 152.49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 4015, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 4015, 771

Auto

17.3 11%

Teleop

103.8 68%

Endgame

31.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3161, 1360, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

315 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3161, 1360, 7520

Auto

48.7 16%

Teleop

184.2 59%

Endgame

77.3 25%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.4pts

Blue projected score315pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.5
Score range: 122–341
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.6Season APEX631.5

17.3Auto48.7

103.8Teleop184.2

31Endgame77.3

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	69
teleop	89	206
endgame	67	66
foul	0	5
total	176	346

Result

Final score

176 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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