Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.03 – 273.05

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±10.4

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 3.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 23.52Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -12.57Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.4 ±10.5

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 92.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 135.59Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 771, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5719, 771, 9659

Auto

13.4 100%

Teleop

-15.8 0%

Endgame

14.3 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6397, 1360, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

273 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 1360, 9785

Auto

27.7 10%

Teleop

155.4 58%

Endgame

85.6 32%

Strengths

· 9785 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14pts

Blue projected score273pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259
Score range: -13–300
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.9Season APEX596.4

13.4Auto27.7

-15.8Teleop155.4

14.3Endgame85.6

71Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	3	100
endgame	1	23
foul	0	0
total	18	141

Result

Final score

18 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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