Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.29 – 118.61

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.4 ±11.2

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 15.63Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 131.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 63.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 39.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 62.38Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 16.3Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4015, 2935, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4015, 2935, 11270

Auto

26.9 12%

Teleop

125.4 58%

Endgame

63.0 29%

Strengths

· 2935 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 9262, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 9262, 10167

Auto

15.1 13%

Teleop

58.4 50%

Endgame

43.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.3pts

Blue projected score118.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.7
Score range: 93–236
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.4Season APEX333.1

26.9Auto15.1

125.4Teleop58.4

63Endgame43.7

11Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	5
teleop	178	56
endgame	65	39
foul	0	0
total	274	100

Result

Final score

274 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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