Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.43 – 207.41

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.8 ±9.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -11.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 134.65Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 7.31Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±11.7

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 0.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 191.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 15.8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 1325, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 1325, 10554

Auto

43.0 33%

Teleop

68.7 52%

Endgame

19.2 15%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8850, 7520, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8850, 7520, 3560

Auto

25.2 12%

Teleop

141.7 70%

Endgame

36.7 18%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.4pts

Blue projected score207.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 104–233
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.8Season APEX366.2

43Auto25.2

68.7Teleop141.7

19.2Endgame36.7

13Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	38
teleop	170	66
endgame	42	3
foul	0	30
total	273	137

Result

Final score

273 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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