Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.05 – 105.85

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 79 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.8 ±11

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 109.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 37.7Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -2.96Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±10.4

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 107.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -17.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 15.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 9562, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1360, 9562, 9782

Auto

27.4 19%

Teleop

88.5 61%

Endgame

28.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3161, 9659, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3161, 9659, 5031

Auto

16.7 16%

Teleop

58.7 55%

Endgame

30.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 79–171
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.8Season APEX382.6

27.4Auto16.7

88.5Teleop58.7

28.7Endgame30.8

8Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	45
teleop	12	2
endgame	2	0
foul	10	0
total	45	47

Result

Final score

45 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 79 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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