Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.8 – 163.33

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.3 ±10.5

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -4.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -4.29Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 78.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455 ±9.8

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 27.57Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -3.92Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 139.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2634, 3560, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 3560, 11270

Auto

13.0 19%

Teleop

18.9 28%

Endgame

35.5 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 5719, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 5719, 9785

Auto

12.8 8%

Teleop

87.1 55%

Endgame

58.1 37%

Strengths

· 9785 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score163.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 44–189
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.3Season APEX455

13Auto12.8

18.9Teleop87.1

35.5Endgame58.1

21Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	75	131
endgame	0	44
foul	5	15
total	99	209

Result

Final score

99 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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