Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.23 – 126.61

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±12.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 23.49Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -18.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 19.71Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±11

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 52.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 17.36Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 56.84Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 8850, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 8850, 4015

Auto

5.6 24%

Teleop

0.4 2%

Endgame

17.8 75%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6397, 919, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 919, 1310

Auto

19.0 16%

Teleop

88.0 72%

Endgame

14.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score126.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.4
Score range: -3–154
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.2Season APEX229.4

5.6Auto19

0.4Teleop88

17.8Endgame14.8

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	6	15
endgame	10	3
foul	0	5
total	25	39

Result

Final score

25 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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