Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.46 – 177.12

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.9 ±10.4

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 57.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 80.68Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 11.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.4 ±9.4

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 45.63Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 134.97Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX -3.48Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 3161, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9262, 3161, 5031

Auto

26.1 17%

Teleop

80.2 53%

Endgame

44.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9562, 1325, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9562, 1325, 6632

Auto

38.4 22%

Teleop

90.4 52%

Endgame

45.7 26%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.5pts

Blue projected score177.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 122–204
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.9Season APEX528.4

26.1Auto38.4

80.2Teleop90.4

44Endgame45.7

66Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	53
teleop	104	96
endgame	68	8
foul	0	0
total	216	157

Result

Final score

216 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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