Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.62 – 44.9

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±11.2

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 121.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 0.16Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -33.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.8 ±11.2

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 38.79Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX -15.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 21.24Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 10554, 8850

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 10554, 8850

Auto

-9.6 0%

Teleop

82.1 92%

Endgame

17.0 19%

Strengths

· 9785 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 4015, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 4015, 9562

Auto

5.0 11%

Teleop

19.8 43%

Endgame

21.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score44.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 21–113
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.2Season APEX501.8

-9.6Auto5

82.1Teleop19.8

17Endgame21.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	119	91
endgame	63	58
foul	5	0
total	215	172

Result

Final score

215 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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