Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
201.8 – 133
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
459 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 161.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±8.8
Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 87.51Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 16.23Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 98.06Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 62.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 41.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 29.45Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7520, 1310, 1325
86
/ 100 compatProjected
201.8 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7520, 1310, 1325
Auto
30.7 15%
Teleop
127.6 63%
Endgame
44.7 22%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4069, 2634, 5719
68
/ 100 compatProjected
133 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4069, 2634, 5719
Auto
9.8 8%
Teleop
74.9 58%
Endgame
44.6 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score201.8pts
Blue projected score133pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 68.8
- Score range
- 111–224
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
665.5Season APEX317.6
30.7Auto9.8
127.6Teleop74.9
44.7Endgame44.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 97 | 0 |
| teleop | 271 | 37 |
| endgame | 86 | 25 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 459 | 67 |
Result
Final score
459 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 161.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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