Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.32 – 5.97

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±11.6

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 56.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 21.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 11.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±10.4

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -5.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 4.11Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 7.31Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6397, 5031, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 5031, 9782

Auto

9.2 10%

Teleop

27.1 30%

Endgame

54.3 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 771, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 771, 6632

Auto

17.3 100%

Teleop

-11.6 0%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: -18–113
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223Season APEX219.8

9.2Auto17.3

27.1Teleop-11.6

54.3Endgame-0.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	7
teleop	30	3
endgame	11	7
foul	0	0
total	53	17

Result

Final score

53 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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