Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.69 – 145.55

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 52.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 18.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 64.91Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 52.56Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 64.33Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 28.66Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 9589, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 7712

Auto

29.9 24%

Teleop

59.7 47%

Endgame

37.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 5409, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 5409, 2708

Auto

17.7 12%

Teleop

78.9 56%

Endgame

45.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.7pts

Blue projected score145.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.9
Score range: 104–178
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 178.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.8Season APEX361.3

29.9Auto17.7

59.7Teleop78.9

37Endgame45.5

67Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	29
teleop	98	67
endgame	43	63
foul	15	10
total	189	169

Result

Final score

189 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts

Match videos

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