Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.74 – 208.34

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 199Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 0.54Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 96.2Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 13.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 104.26Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 90.91Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 7480, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 7480, 188

Auto

46.1 16%

Teleop

182.7 64%

Endgame

55.0 19%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6135, 10015, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10015, 4976

Auto

29.5 15%

Teleop

110.1 56%

Endgame

57.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score295.7pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 176–328
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.8Season APEX381.1

46.1Auto29.5

182.7Teleop110.1

55Endgame57.9

38Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	40
teleop	167	101
endgame	128	29
foul	0	15
total	324	185

Result

Final score

324 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

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