Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.88 – 127.46

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

510 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 162.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 270.77Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 21.08Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 47.93Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 19.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 60Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 4946, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 4946, 781

Auto

100.5 23%

Teleop

265.5 60%

Endgame

76.9 17%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 7757, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 7757, 7712

Auto

28.2 24%

Teleop

51.7 44%

Endgame

38.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score453.9pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 326.4
Score range: 96–485
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX385

100.5Auto28.2

265.5Teleop51.7

76.9Endgame38.2

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	39
teleop	279	111
endgame	109	62
foul	15	0
total	510	212

Result

Final score

510 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Match videos

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