Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.72 – 137.85

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.1 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 9.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 45.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 30.64Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 49.84Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 61.75Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 26.26Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 9569, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 9569, 11227

Auto

18.8 24%

Teleop

45.0 58%

Endgame

14.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 5409, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 5409, 2708

Auto

16.7 12%

Teleop

74.3 54%

Endgame

46.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.7pts

Blue projected score137.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 55–169
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.1Season APEX361.3

18.8Auto16.7

45Teleop74.3

14Endgame46.1

15Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	56	107
endgame	51	55
foul	15	15
total	138	199

Result

Final score

138 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Match videos

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