Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.16 – 136.78

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 8.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 99.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 85.8Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 49.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 61.53Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 26.15Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 10015, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10015, 4976

Auto

29.1 16%

Teleop

95.4 52%

Endgame

57.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 5409, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 5409, 2708

Auto

16.0 12%

Teleop

74.1 54%

Endgame

46.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score136.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.4
Score range: 106–225
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.1Season APEX361.3

29.1Auto16

95.4Teleop74.1

57.3Endgame46.9

12Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	169	77
endgame	70	47
foul	5	5
total	276	149

Result

Final score

276 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Match videos

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