Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.08 – 67.77

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 128.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 212.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 109.17Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 13.49Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.1 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 3.77Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 39.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 24.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 188, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 188, 7480

Auto

56.1 17%

Teleop

206.2 64%

Endgame

61.4 19%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8729, 9569, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 9569, 11227

Auto

17.0 28%

Teleop

31.3 52%

Endgame

11.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score335.1pts

Blue projected score67.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 267.3
Score range: 37–366
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.8Season APEX309.1

56.1Auto17

206.2Teleop31.3

61.4Endgame11.9

39Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	26
teleop	112	105
endgame	41	27
foul	15	10
total	178	168

Result

Final score

178 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 128.7 pts

Match videos

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