Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.04 – 120.77

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±10.4

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 85.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 8.7Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 32.61Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 44.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 59.39Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 5036, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 5036, 5024

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

80.2 63%

Endgame

29.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 9589, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 7712

Auto

30.1 27%

Teleop

48.5 43%

Endgame

33.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 90–158
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX396.8

18.6Auto30.1

80.2Teleop48.5

29Endgame33

0Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	24
teleop	78	85
endgame	22	54
foul	0	15
total	127	178

Result

Final score

127 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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