Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.78 – 95.1

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

512 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 15.65Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 269.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 159.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.04Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 19.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 41.44Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 781, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 4946, 1241

Auto

98.0 23%

Teleop

258.6 60%

Endgame

76.7 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 5689, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 5689, 8089

Auto

30.1 34%

Teleop

46.0 51%

Endgame

13.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score444.8pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 349.7
Score range: 64–476
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX241.7

98Auto30.1

258.6Teleop46

76.7Endgame13.6

7Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	22
teleop	303	25
endgame	88	22
foul	10	10
total	512	79

Result

Final score

512 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Match videos

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