Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.67 – 202.69

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 159.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 265.27Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 16.26Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 11.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 103.04Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 88.5Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 4946, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 4946, 781

Auto

99.5 23%

Teleop

252.0 59%

Endgame

78.3 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6135, 10015, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10015, 4976

Auto

33.4 17%

Teleop

109.6 57%

Endgame

50.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score440.7pts

Blue projected score202.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238
Score range: 170–474
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX381.1

99.5Auto33.4

252Teleop109.6

78.3Endgame50.4

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	36
teleop	208	120
endgame	86	39
foul	5	15
total	366	210

Result

Final score

366 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Match videos

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