Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.28 – 144.04

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 9.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 102Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 87.29Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 55.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 20.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 68.63Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 10015, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10015, 4976

Auto

31.5 17%

Teleop

106.0 56%

Endgame

51.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 9589, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 7712

Auto

30.2 23%

Teleop

66.5 50%

Endgame

37.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.3pts

Blue projected score144pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.2
Score range: 111–232
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 180.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.1Season APEX396.8

31.5Auto30.2

106Teleop66.5

51.1Endgame37.4

9Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	38
teleop	133	73
endgame	46	62
foul	0	5
total	225	178

Result

Final score

225 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.