Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

460.64 – 300.55

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

325 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 103 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 165.34Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 272.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 23.16Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 200.56Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 1.97Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 98.02Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 4946, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 4946, 781

Auto

101.3 23%

Teleop

267.2 60%

Endgame

80.4 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 7480, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 7480, 188

Auto

42.9 15%

Teleop

180.8 62%

Endgame

67.1 23%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score460.6pts

Blue projected score300.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.1
Score range: 269–493
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 696 vs event baseline 178.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX610.8

101.3Auto42.9

267.2Teleop180.8

80.4Endgame67.1

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	59
teleop	162	212
endgame	68	95
foul	5	5
total	325	371

Result

Final score

325 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 103 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.