Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.57 – 133.48

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 11.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 102.61Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 89.31Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±10.4

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 87.36Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 10.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 35.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 10015, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10015, 4976

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

108.7 57%

Endgame

51.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 5036, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 5036, 5024

Auto

23.2 17%

Teleop

78.8 59%

Endgame

32.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.6pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.1
Score range: 101–236
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 178.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.1Season APEX328.7

31.7Auto23.2

108.7Teleop78.8

51.4Endgame32.4

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	27
teleop	87	49
endgame	53	63
foul	5	5
total	176	144

Result

Final score

176 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Match videos

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