Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.63 – 164.46

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 394

Prediction missed · off by 141.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.3 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 5.88Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 62.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 113.43Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.2 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 42.86Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 8.17Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 113.43Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4976, 9569, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4976, 9569, 8729

Auto

29.2 16%

Teleop

114.9 64%

Endgame

36.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 7757, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 7757, 4946

Auto

26.6 17%

Teleop

104.9 68%

Endgame

23.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.6pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.2
Score range: 139–207
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.3Season APEX575.2

29.2Auto26.6

114.9Teleop104.9

36.1Endgame23.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	73
teleop	66	247
endgame	29	74
foul	15	0
total	128	394

Result

Final score

128 – 394

Prediction missed · off by 141.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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