Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.63 – 163.72

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±10.4

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 32.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 41.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 29.43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 32.86Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 30Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 100.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 5024, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 5024, 8089

Auto

12.9 15%

Teleop

49.1 56%

Endgame

25.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 5596, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 188, 5596, 5032

Auto

27.2 18%

Teleop

93.4 61%

Endgame

31.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score163.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.1
Score range: 77–191
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.5Season APEX410.1

12.9Auto27.2

49.1Teleop93.4

25.7Endgame31.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	15
teleop	31	17
endgame	9	15
foul	5	0
total	84	47

Result

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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