Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.05 – 53.41

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.8 ±9.8

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 90.24Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 147.87Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 11.94Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.3 ±11

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 7.93Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.15Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 11.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 1241, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 1241, 5036

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

154.9 63%

Endgame

50.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3543, 5870, 6135

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 5870, 6135

Auto

19.1 53%

Teleop

6.2 17%

Endgame

11.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.1pts

Blue projected score53.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.6
Score range: 20–283
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.8Season APEX178.3

38.9Auto19.1

154.9Teleop6.2

50.7Endgame11

4Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	218	1
endgame	55	1
foul	0	20
total	296	41

Result

Final score

296 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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