Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.73 – 297.23

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±9.8

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 99.51Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 26.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 62.16Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±9.8

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 15.61Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 258.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 23.02Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 11227, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 11227, 5409

Auto

30.4 16%

Teleop

116.5 62%

Endgame

41.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2708, 4946, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2708, 4946, 5024

Auto

72.9 25%

Teleop

152.8 53%

Endgame

63.0 22%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score297.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.5
Score range: 157–328
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.6Season APEX522.3

30.4Auto72.9

116.5Teleop152.8

41.1Endgame63

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	82
teleop	99	271
endgame	67	76
foul	5	0
total	187	429

Result

Final score

187 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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