Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.21 – 186.14

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±9.8

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 16.19Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 104.57Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 9.45Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.8 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 156.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 16.5Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 13.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 188, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7757, 188, 7480

Auto

18.2 15%

Teleop

77.6 64%

Endgame

26.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 5596, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 5596, 9589

Auto

33.4 19%

Teleop

121.9 69%

Endgame

22.0 12%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.2pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.9
Score range: 100–216
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376Season APEX507.8

18.2Auto33.4

77.6Teleop121.9

26.3Endgame22

46Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	53
teleop	105	119
endgame	65	55
foul	10	15
total	204	242

Result

Final score

204 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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