Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.9 – 166.62

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.9 ±11

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 46.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 5.19Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 39.53Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.7 ±11.7

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 20.41Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 93.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 52.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5032, 6135, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 6135, 8089

Auto

19.0 25%

Teleop

36.8 49%

Endgame

20.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7603, 7902, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 7902, 4152

Auto

34.2 21%

Teleop

94.8 59%

Endgame

31.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.9pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.7
Score range: 60–198
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.9Season APEX353.7

19Auto34.2

36.8Teleop94.8

20Endgame31.2

6Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	0
teleop	71	54
endgame	38	42
foul	0	5
total	132	101

Result

Final score

132 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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