Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.93 – 316.94

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 5.12Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 18.72Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.09Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.4 ±9.8

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 216.41Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 87.47Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 13.06Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 5689, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 5689, 5870

Auto

26.8 51%

Teleop

13.7 26%

Endgame

12.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 4976, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 4976, 5036

Auto

54.6 18%

Teleop

185.4 60%

Endgame

68.3 22%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score316.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259
Score range: 27–348
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.3Season APEX490.4

26.8Auto54.6

13.7Teleop185.4

12.4Endgame68.3

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	72
teleop	22	168
endgame	23	55
foul	5	0
total	68	295

Result

Final score

68 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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