Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.12 – 99.89

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 252.26Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 37.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 6.07Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 67.3Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 12.18Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 9569, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 9569, 3543

Auto

71.2 25%

Teleop

168.4 59%

Endgame

46.6 16%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 7480, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 7480, 781

Auto

15.9 17%

Teleop

39.8 43%

Endgame

36.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.1pts

Blue projected score99.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.2
Score range: 70–326
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.1Season APEX377.4

71.2Auto15.9

168.4Teleop39.8

46.6Endgame36.7

38Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	18
teleop	149	31
endgame	79	11
foul	45	5
total	344	65

Result

Final score

344 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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