Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.04 – 269.47

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±10.4

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 49.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 11.78Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 11.3Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.3 ±9.9

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 157.81Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 104.7Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 6.96Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 2708, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 2708, 7757

Auto

27.5 41%

Teleop

11.2 17%

Endgame

28.0 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 10015, 6135

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 10015, 6135

Auto

49.4 20%

Teleop

154.4 62%

Endgame

46.2 18%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73pts

Blue projected score269.5pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -196.4
Score range: 43–299
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX614.3

27.5Auto49.4

11.2Teleop154.4

28Endgame46.2

38Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	38	139
endgame	33	65
foul	30	15
total	118	247

Result

Final score

118 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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