Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.5 – 131.96

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 99.53Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 33.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 29.07Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 24.48Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 87.55Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 19.93Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 8089, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 188, 8089, 5870

Auto

35.8 23%

Teleop

86.5 55%

Endgame

35.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 4976, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11227, 4976, 5024

Auto

27.2 20%

Teleop

80.8 60%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.5pts

Blue projected score132pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 102–193
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.1Season APEX368.1

35.8Auto27.2

86.5Teleop80.8

35.7Endgame26.2

19Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	38
teleop	162	77
endgame	22	43
foul	0	10
total	224	168

Result

Final score

224 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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