Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.26 – 63.06

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 8

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482 ±11.2

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 10.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 202.31Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 47.49Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.8 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 33.14Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 5.35Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 24.57Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7603, 4476, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 4476, 9569

Auto

43.4 17%

Teleop

155.0 62%

Endgame

49.9 20%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 781, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11227, 781, 7757

Auto

15.7 27%

Teleop

24.5 42%

Endgame

17.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score260.3pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.2
Score range: 30–293
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482Season APEX239.8

43.4Auto15.7

155Teleop24.5

49.9Endgame17.8

23Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	0
teleop	166	0
endgame	20	8
foul	0	0
total	224	8

Result

Final score

224 – 8

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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