Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.94 – 232.05

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 113.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 22.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 29.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 5.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.6 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 167.02Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 23.9Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 41.13Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8089, 9569, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8089, 9569, 781

Auto

15.6 32%

Teleop

24.9 51%

Endgame

8.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 2708, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 2708, 5870

Auto

40.3 18%

Teleop

126.2 57%

Endgame

56.3 25%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.9pts

Blue projected score232.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.1
Score range: 27–262
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.2Season APEX499.6

15.6Auto40.3

24.9Teleop126.2

8.7Endgame56.3

43Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	49
teleop	104	79
endgame	52	10
foul	5	0
total	190	138

Result

Final score

190 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 113.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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