Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.19 – 60.79

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±11

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 15.68Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 91.62Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 33.89Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±10.4

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.88Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 12.2Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 30.71Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 7902, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 7902, 5689

Auto

11.3 9%

Teleop

81.3 64%

Endgame

34.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9589, 7480, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 7480, 11227

Auto

14.4 27%

Teleop

33.9 63%

Endgame

5.8 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.2pts

Blue projected score60.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.4
Score range: 30–172
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.9Season APEX278.2

11.3Auto14.4

81.3Teleop33.9

34.4Endgame5.8

25Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	15
teleop	51	25
endgame	27	2
foul	20	5
total	106	47

Result

Final score

106 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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