Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.74 – 136.2

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±11.7

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 79.07Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 8.69Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 12.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.1 ±9.8

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 21.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 50.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 64.38Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 8729, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 8729, 7603

Auto

22.8 23%

Teleop

52.0 52%

Endgame

24.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5024, 5032, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5024, 5032, 7712

Auto

24.8 18%

Teleop

66.9 49%

Endgame

43.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score136.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.5
Score range: 70–167
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.3Season APEX426.1

22.8Auto24.8

52Teleop66.9

24.5Endgame43.8

14Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	14	79
endgame	7	30
foul	0	0
total	45	132

Result

Final score

45 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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