Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.56 – 349.26

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.8 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 245.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -4.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -5.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 114.71Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 216.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 18.03Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 5036, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 5036, 5596

Auto

65.5 27%

Teleop

136.0 57%

Endgame

36.9 15%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 4476, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 4476, 3543

Auto

61.1 19%

Teleop

207.0 63%

Endgame

61.2 19%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.6pts

Blue projected score349.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.7
Score range: 205–379
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 167.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.8Season APEX565.1

65.5Auto61.1

136Teleop207

36.9Endgame61.2

55Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	72
teleop	222	174
endgame	58	74
foul	20	10
total	379	330

Result

Final score

379 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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