Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.22 – 106.42

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.6 ±10.4

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 18.98Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 80.58Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 98.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 28.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -3.37Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 81.56Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7480, 4976, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7480, 4976, 7902

Auto

21.9 12%

Teleop

121.0 64%

Endgame

46.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5689, 781, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 781, 188

Auto

19.0 19%

Teleop

53.7 53%

Endgame

28.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.2pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.8
Score range: 76–228
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 167.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.6Season APEX343.1

21.9Auto19

121Teleop53.7

46.7Endgame28.4

48Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	21
teleop	109	90
endgame	46	52
foul	0	5
total	164	168

Result

Final score

164 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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