Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.87 – 121.18

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 0.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.2 ±9.8

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 10.01Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 23.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 165.11Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.2 ±10.4

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 29.82Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 51.59Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 39.77Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8729, 5024, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 5024, 1241

Auto

44.7 23%

Teleop

109.8 57%

Endgame

38.9 20%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 5032, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 5032, 5870

Auto

22.5 19%

Teleop

71.0 59%

Endgame

26.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.9pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.7
Score range: 91–229
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.2Season APEX304.2

44.7Auto22.5

109.8Teleop71

38.9Endgame26.9

18Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	20
teleop	112	52
endgame	19	39
foul	10	10
total	198	121

Result

Final score

198 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 0.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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