Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

331.31 – 0

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

488 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 112.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.2 ±10.7

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 103.95Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 228.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -1.05Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.7 ±10.4

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -1.02Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -12.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 9.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 4946, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 4946, 7603

Auto

76.0 23%

Teleop

200.7 60%

Endgame

57.1 17%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7757, 5036, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7757, 5036, 9589

Auto

10.6 0%

Teleop

-22.4 100%

Endgame

5.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score331.3pts

Blue projected score-4.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 331.3
Score range: -30–361
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.2Season APEX180.7

76Auto10.6

200.7Teleop-22.4

57.1Endgame5.3

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	19
teleop	270	28
endgame	86	17
foul	30	5
total	488	69

Result

Final score

488 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 112.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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