Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.54 – 323.47

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±9.8

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 20.96Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 98.2Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 30.38Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.3 ±9.8

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 55.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 14.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 253.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 188, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 188, 2708

Auto

13.5 9%

Teleop

81.4 57%

Endgame

47.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 8729, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 8729, 4946

Auto

77.3 25%

Teleop

174.8 56%

Endgame

62.5 20%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.5pts

Blue projected score323.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173.9
Score range: 117–356
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.5Season APEX514.3

13.5Auto77.3

81.4Teleop174.8

47.3Endgame62.5

28Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	61
teleop	65	201
endgame	20	91
foul	20	0
total	115	353

Result

Final score

115 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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