Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.87 – 307.91

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 17.63Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -4.82Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 76.06Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.5 ±9.8

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 73.78Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 215.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 18.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 5596, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 5596, 7712

Auto

13.6 19%

Teleop

30.7 42%

Endgame

28.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5409, 4476, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 4476, 8089

Auto

53.3 18%

Teleop

177.1 60%

Endgame

62.9 21%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.9pts

Blue projected score307.9pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219
Score range: 60–337
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.5Season APEX596.5

13.6Auto53.3

30.7Teleop177.1

28.5Endgame62.9

42Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	76
teleop	49	223
endgame	17	43
foul	5	0
total	81	342

Result

Final score

81 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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