Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124 – 99.43

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.9 ±10.4

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 104.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 14.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 5.06Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 46.74Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 22.39Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 30.3Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 9589, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 9589, 7757

Auto

12.0 11%

Teleop

66.9 59%

Endgame

34.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 7480, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 7480, 5024

Auto

34.5 35%

Teleop

36.1 36%

Endgame

28.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score99.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.6
Score range: 69–154
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.9Season APEX292.8

12Auto34.5

66.9Teleop36.1

34.6Endgame28.9

59Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	55	43
endgame	14	12
foul	0	10
total	84	82

Result

Final score

84 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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