Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.83 – 64.15

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±10.5

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 28.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -2.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 100.54Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -13.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 59.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 18.22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 5036, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 5036, 188

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

70.9 62%

Endgame

23.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5596, 5409, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 5409, 9569

Auto

3.2 5%

Teleop

39.2 63%

Endgame

20.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.8pts

Blue projected score64.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 34–157
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.1Season APEX377

20.1Auto3.2

70.9Teleop39.2

23Endgame20.3

10Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	1	116
endgame	17	6
foul	5	0
total	40	144

Result

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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