Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.41 – 205.27

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.7 ±9.3

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 74.16Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 20.39Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 208.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.9 ±11.2

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 49.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -4.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 160.51Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 2708, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2708, 4476

Auto

56.9 20%

Teleop

168.4 59%

Endgame

61.8 22%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 7603, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 7603, 1241

Auto

32.3 16%

Teleop

143.6 71%

Endgame

25.7 13%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score303.4pts

Blue projected score205.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.1
Score range: 175–333
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.7Season APEX554.9

56.9Auto32.3

168.4Teleop143.6

61.8Endgame25.7

25Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	68
teleop	171	129
endgame	122	55
foul	10	5
total	330	257

Result

Final score

330 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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